A New Era of Risks

October 31, 2017

Last week I had the opportunity to moderate a round table discussion with CFOs of mid-size firms in the Houston area.

The topics that were top of mind to this group were the strategy creation for an age of flux and the effectiveness of risk management.  These topics were curated by CFOs and were meant to provide food for thought and action for the same group. How do we ensure that risk management becomes an integral part of an organization’s strategy at one end and how do we take risk management programs to penetrate all levels of the organization?

Risk Management at a Time of Global Uncertainty (Harvard Business Review Analytic Services (2011) reports that in 2011, 42% of firms with 10,000 or more employees had a chief risk officer compared to 11% in 2006-08.  A survey by CFO.com in 2012 reports that 72% of the companies surveyed had devoted more time and resources to risk management since 2010. Yet, a more recent survey by CFO.com reports that risk scores for the top 10 risk issues (regulatory changes, volatility in global financial markets, sustaining customer loyalty, economic conditions, to name a few issues) were higher this year compared to 2016.

What have we learnt in the last decade about new sources of risk?

If we turn back the clock to 2007, an executive sitting in their office planning risk management strategy for the coming decade would hardly have anticipated the financial crisis that ensued. Over time and despite increasingly sophisticated quantitative tools to manage risk, our range of risks continues to expand.  Today we live in an intricately connected world where the number of connected devices (over 26 billion) is shy of four times the number of people on the planet (about 7.3 billion). Every one of these connected devices provides a degree of convenience we are delighted to enjoy, yet every device needs to be cyber protected.

Another dimension to risk that is growing in importance, thanks again to technology is the massive disruption in industry structures. Take retail for example — As of April 2017, 46 million square feet of retail space has been shut down in the U.S. This is the total square feet of shut downs for 2016.  Assuming that the typical department store has a footprint of 130,000 square feet, we are about 353 department stores fewer and the year is not over. No industry is immune to these changes.  It is not unreasonable to assume that a third of the core skillsets needed for jobs as they are defined today will be replaced in the next five years — Health care and finance, education and law are all set to see regime shifts in terms of skills needed.

In Houston the events of the last month and a half have unfortunately given us a unique perspective on risk – Harvey has created learning opportunities that we would be foolish to ignore.  As Harvey unfolded, I recall thinking of Taleb’s analogy – the black swan.  Black swans are highly improbable events that, should they occur, can cause significant damage.  Looking at the data however, suggests a slightly different description.  Per data from Munich Re, storms and floods account for almost three-quarters of weather-related disasters.  On a global scale such events have grown three times in the last 36 years from 200 in 1980 to over 600 in 2016.  In 2010, three times as many people lived in houses threatened by hurricanes as in 1970. Closer to home in Harris County we built more than 8,600 buildings inside the 100-year floodplains.  Data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) shows that houses that repeatedly flood account for 1% of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) properties but account for 25-30% of total claims. Texas is among five states in the nation where the number of these homes exceeds 10,000 and is growing by around 5,000 a year. So was this truly a risk that was unanticipated?  The descriptor term is not black swan but gray rhino (a term coined by Michele Wucker). Google rhinos and you will see them described as black or white rhinos.  In reality, most rhinos are neither black nor white, they are gray – we see rhinos and realize they are gray but call them black or white.  Gray rhinos hence, are events that are likely, but ignored, that are likely preventable but absent planning for prevention, become catastrophe events – the Takata airbag scandal comes to mind.

Finally and perhaps thanks to technology, our ability to differentiate truth from fiction has been compromised.  A recent report from the Innovation Center of U.S. Dairy points out that about 7% of American adults or 16 million adults, believe that chocolate milk comes from brown cows. A gray rhino risk we are staring at has to do with our ability to separate truth from untruths, facts from alternative facts – the costs of not addressing this are significant.  Accurate information is key to how we manage and get on the other side of risk and it starts with learning how to differentiate facts from alternative truths.

The discussion highlighted tactical and strategic risks – clearly the finance function is being tasked with more, and CFOs are rising to the challenge.  Their ‘outside the operations’ perspective imbues a credibility that helps drive strategic conversations. Cyber risks, risks associated with growth and operations, macro uncertainties arising from changes to the tax code, the labor markets and technology in general, are top of mind.  Risk mitigation was discussed as much a culture issue as it was a tactical challenge.  Getting objectivity into conversations and speaking up about risks is critical. To be effective, risk management strategies must drive the culture of the organization.

Thoughts on Podcasts & National Flex Day

October 17, 2017

Emma Plumb, director of 1 Million for Work Flexibility

I recently interviewed Emma Plumb (director of 1 Million for Work Flexibility, or 1MFWF) for Bauer College’s Working Wisdom podcast “How Does She Do It?,” which shares stories of women who have non-linear trajectories of growth.

These conversations engage women who by all measures are successful.  At the same time, their path to success was anything but smooth.  How did they make the leaps and what inspired them to do so? The podcasts help us understand how success comes from being in the “arena” and daring the odds, greatly.

Life, as we all know, happens. Often, the successful individuals we speak with on the podcast took career breaks — in some cases it was to raise children, in others it was an aging parent whose needs were prioritized. Having the flexibility to determine your working hours makes sense, yet is uncommon in the world of business. Emma decided to focus on the issue of work flexibility, a focus that grew out of her own unpleasant experience.

Today is Oct. 17, and we celebrate the fifth annual National Flex Day, a day to encourage employers and employees to unite behind the need for more flexibility by sharing how pervasive and powerful it already is. National Flex Day is a partnership with Emma’s organization, 1MFWF, and Working Mother.

Workplace flexibility has grown from being the “right” thing to do to being the smart thing to do, if you want your business to succeed. Engaged employees are more productive, and engagement has to do with providing more options in the workplace. Research in this area supports the fact that more flexible work options increased productivity directly by allowing individuals to work at their productive peak times and indirectly by lowering stress levels. Flex work schedules lower absenteeism. They also reduce the costs associated with retraining and recruiting. Flex workplaces expand the talent pool for recruitment, they improve morale, and make employees know they are valued on their own terms. Millennials value flexibility right after compensation and benefits, and are more insistent about this than the generations before them.

More than anything else, flexibility in the workplace is smart business, and is hence a business imperative.

What are you doing to make your workplace embrace the idea of flexibility? Send me a suggestion for an actionable item that enhances flexibility in the workplace.

Thank You, Joe “JJ” Kinahan

April 19, 2017

Joe “JJ” Kinahan, Chief Market Strategist and Managing Director at Ameritrade Client Services; Latha Ramchand, Dean of the C. T. Bauer College of Business; and John Lopez, Bauer College Clinical Assistant Professor of Finance gather for a photo before the college’s 2017 Financial Symposium. See more photos on WhereAwesomeHappens.com.

On Saturday, April 8, Bauer College hosted our annual Financial Symposium open to students, faculty, staff and the community. The symposium is meant to provide UH students and the Houston community information on topics that will help them make better financial decisions. Students also listen to experts talk about careers in financial services, including commercial banking, financial analysis and personal financial planning. The goal of the symposium is to take learning to the community in ways that make a difference.

Consider the facts:

Today, only 13% of all private-sector workers have a traditional pension, compared with 38% in 1979, and close to 45% of Americans have nothing saved for retirement. More than 30 million people don’t have access to any retirement plan because the small businesses that they work for don’t provide one.

Clearly, we can and must do better.

At Bauer College, we take the message of financial literacy seriously. We need to share the message and share it often. In many ways, the actionable part of financial literacy has to do as much with discipline as it does with finance. As with any behavior, those that enforce discipline in our expenditure and savings plans are best taught early in life. It is for this reason that Bauer College makes every effort to share this message with students and with the community.

This year the keynote speaker at the Financial Symposium was Joe “JJ” Kinahan (@TDAJJKinahan), Chief Market Strategist and Managing Director at Ameritrade Client Services. He took this message one step further by connecting the message of financial literacy to a strong work ethic and character.

Work hard, for there is no substitute. Every job has parts that are frustrating. A typical job might have 25% that we absolutely enjoy and are engaged in, another 25% that we abhor, leaving the middle 50% in a neutral zone that we are neither excited about nor disgusted with. Success results when we move this middle 50% into the more exciting zone, leading us to love 75% of what we do. Plan the 25% that is frustrating and everything else will seem exciting. In everything you do, character matters.  Not doing the right thing has financial implications.  Your behavior builds reputation, and reputation is your biggest asset.

As you build your reputation, consider building your financial asset base as well — when you start working, make sure you maximize the contribution to your 401(K) or retirement plan.  Starting early, and leveraging your employer’s contribution, can boost your total returns more than starting late and investing more for a shorter length of time. As they often say, when it comes to investment and maximizing returns, it is time, not timing. Time is your biggest ally when it comes to investment and returns. Timing assumes perfect foresight which is a fiction of the imagination.

At the same time, have fun. It is important that you love and enjoy what you do.

JJ Kinahan is a 30-year trading veteran who began his career as a Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) market maker trading in the S&P 100 (OEX) and S&P 500 (SPX) pits. He also worked for ING Bank, Blue Capital and was Managing Director of Option Trading for Van Der Moolen, USA. Later in his career he joined the thinkorswim Group, which was eventually acquired by TD Ameritrade.

Thank you, JJ — thank you for inspiring us.